A look back

This time last year, I spoke about the difficulty in making predictions, before making some for 2015.  I stated that I thought that the US markets, USD and economy would do well.  Generally speaking, that has turned out to be true, especially on the last two points, and the Dow and S&P have regularly hit all-time highs.   The markets did not hit the 19000-20000 I thought they would, simply hitting 18,300.

I also said, when oil was trading at $50, there would be some bottom and patient investors could make money.  That was certainly true, as oil hit a 2015 peak of $60-$65, but the overall trend has been downwards, towards $40 and lower.

On housing, I said that as I expected the USD to get stronger, I felt that in USD terms many house prices would get cheaper in developing markets, which they have.

So notwithstanding how hard it is to predict the future, allow me to do the same for 2016.  In other words, based on the facts I have available to me, what do I think is likely to happen in 2016:

 

Oil and commodities:  It has been a tough time for this sector.  However, valuations look good.  For somebody buying at $40, there is a very high chance that the price will rebound at least to $50+ sometime in 2015.  The same thing applies to gold, silver and other commodities.

The markets:  European and emerging markets look cheap at the moment, on a PE basis. A lot of selling recently has been due to terrorism and other factors that don’t impact on a firms profitability.  The FTSE has decreased from around 7100 to 6100, and yet most UK firms are just as profitable as before, and often more profitable.  I expect to see European markets and many emerging markets gain this year.  US markets might go sidewards.

Housing:  Sidewards in most markets, as valuations aren’t that competitive, and interest rates are likely to rise.  Against that the religion of property means that valuations might not completely crash.

Currencies:  A lot of the gains for the USD might have been priced in, so the USD might trade sidewards, and at some point in the year, commodity based currencies in Russia and Australia might rally.

 

Have a good and prosperous new year!

 

Adam

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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